Looks like we need a new thread for this one!
Hang on Sloopys!!!
Pati
Looks like my DD's house is in the path, just like 2004
This message was edited Aug 27, 2006 9:19 AM
Hurricane Ernesto
If it goes across the mountains in Cuba, it will hopefully knock it down quite a bit. Fingers crossed!
Pati
Here's the models, first time I've seen them in such unified agreement!
Pati
That's amazing that everyone's tracking it so tight!
Dea
Here's one we don't usually see. The NHC uses a lot of minor models in it's predictions.
Pati
He's going to be interesting to watch and compare to the models.
In a day or two we'll need to get our "people watch" list up.
darius, It looks like your sister may get some of this one if the projections are mostly right.
From the 11AM update:
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITY
AT 96 HOURS ASSUMES SOME WEAKENING DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND.
HOWEVER....ERNESTO COULD APPROACH CATEGORY 3 STATUS PRIOR TO THE PROJECTED LANDFALL IN WESTERN FLORIDA.
TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AS EARLY AS 2100 UTC TODAY.
Pati
My map program is ready and waiting.... Hopefully Ernesto will weaken over Cuba and won't have time to regather much strength before making landfall again.
A heartfelt "AMEN" to that Marylyn!
Pati
Hey folks, thought I would check out the Farmer's Almanac and see what they had to say........it always amazes me that they hit so much weather square on the head even though they have to predict it a looooooooog time ahead!
August
"24th-27th. Hurricane threat for Florida and the Gulf Coast, otherwise hazy and humid with scattered thunderstorms"
September
"4th-7th. Violent thunderstorms through the Mississippi Valley. Danger of a hurricane along the Atlantic Coast"
Pati
Well, if anyone is wanting to visit western ny..
Awwww Jen ! Was it just a year ago? So hard to believe. Let's hope this Ernesto goes away Presto!!
Dea
The 5PM update has it down to a TS now......but has this to say about tonight
" Ernesto is forecast to strengthen after it moves away from southwestern Haiti and it could regain hurricane status before it reaches the South Coast of eastern Cuba tomorrow morning."
The have ordered mandatory evacuation from the Keys for tourists, but that's not unusual. Moves a lot of traffic out in case they have to order a serious evacation for residents.
Pati
Hooray, Ernesto is downgraded although expected to strenghtened again over warm Gulf waters.
Stay posted.
Pati, we cross posted
Darius, I wish we could cross paths somewhere, that would be more fun!!Pati
I haven't felt this dreaded heavy heart for a year. The TV is saturated with Katrina footage, and I literally can't watch it.
Alot of memories are coming back full force, needless to say its been a tough weekend.
Dea, somehow it feels like a lifetime ago yet just yest, too
Jen, no doubt it hits hard even when you think it is behind you long ago.
Jen, no doubt it hits hard even when you think it is behind you long ago.
In the middle of all this I should add I've been building an Evac bag for 3+ years. Actually it is 3 bags so far. One is survival stuff like matches and flashlights (and lots more like a compass, a camping stove and fuel, protein bars, water, etc.), one is med supplies, and one is personal gear with blankets. I need to make a small 4th bag now that I have 2 cats, just for them. I'd have a hard time leaving them behind.
If ANY of you aren't doing this, YOU SHOULD! Doesn't have to be a hurricane.
Great idea darius, "always be prepared" or have a "plan B".
I will be praying for all of you that are in the southern coastal region.
Joey
Hey Gang!
Guess who's neighbors are heading to Jax for the Labor Day Weekend........lol
Scheduled to leave here Thurs afternoon and make Jax early AM Friday.
Looks like them 'may' be rearranging their trip.
As they will be taking a bunch of EE's down to JaxFlaGardener for me...................
I will DEFINITELY be watching this one hard!
(MollyMc your Saw Palms are doing great!)
Good Luck and ((HUGS)) to ALL!
HEED the warnings PLEASE and HANG ON SLOOPYS!
Ric
Darius in the Cat Bag put Vet records (most places won't take or board animals w/o documentation) and collars w/ name tags for the cats.
(We had a Katrina cat for a while and placed him w/ a good home.
No collar so no way of tracing the owner.)
Ric
Hey, Ric, great suggestion I had not thought about. I will definitely get the cat records in their bag.
And hopefully never need to use them!
Ric
The 5 am report still sounds like it all hinges on interaction with Cuba. What are your thoughts Pati?
Dea
Big Changes to the forecast track...This is the 5am track
as of this morning looks like it might go up the east coast,
but you never know what they will do.i live on the west coast/and the gulf plays a big part if it gets in it
Good morning all who wait with crossed fingers! Here's one more....it's called the Mariner's 123 rule.
Pati
PS Just a note from the 5AM discussion:
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A POSSIBLE
LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS
THESE CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.
AT 5 AM...0900 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE
EAST COAST...AND FROM SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST.
This message was edited Aug 28, 2006 7:47 AM
This message was edited Aug 28, 2006 7:52 AM
Well, having digested all of this so early (for me) in the morning, I'm headed out to get the Doxies and TomKitty's supplies, and also the travel crates. Not that I'm going anywhere, but need to have them handy "just-in-case"!
Hope you don't mind being called "old faithfuls" but it's a feeling of comfort to have Ric and Marylyn gearing up! (smiling)
Anyway.........It's just a case of watch and wait, Ernesto seems to have the experts in a dither about direction, but better safe than sorry.
Hang on sloopys!!!!
Pati
Man, ALL my brothers and sisters, a few cousins and many, many dear friends live in the new track. Wonder what the track will look like tomorrow?
Here's a nice link that almost shows real time.
http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/global/Region/g3/2xpxIRSatellite.html
Dea
Ya'll start packing & preparing... don't wait until it's too late.. Stay safe
I gotta agree w/ Angelsong.
Get cracking!
It's called prep because you are PRE- paring for it.
Just how hot is the channel between Cuba and the Keys?
Enough to fire Ernesto up?
At 54 being called old anything is pretty funny.
Mom and Dad are 86 and 87 now that I'd call old.
They say 'Mature'! LOL
Ric
We just heard that the water in the Florida Straits is at 86 or 87 degrees Farenheit, Great for powering up the system. There is a universal word for this: caca.
Sylvain.
LOL Sylvain.
Thank's for the link Henry. Were all getting ready here in the Keys. Kinda quiet here with all tourists evacuated. looks like if we get a direct hit it won't have much time to develop more than a Cat 1. Most people are staying here. If we evacuate north we may end up sitting in the middle of a worse situation. As usual we'll wait an see. Got to take care of the potted plants when I get home AGAIN
Neil
Maybe you can just call us "middle-aged faithful...." LOL (I'm 37, but there are definitely days when I feel old!)
Here is a map of Florida with subscribers thumbtacked and the hurricane watch area outlined. As always, the thumbtacks are marking the town where people live, not their actual addresses, so this is not a road map to anyone in particular's actual house. Since it is only marking the town, if there are more than one person in that town, only one thumbtack pops up. We have 478 subscribers in Florida, as of today at 9:47 am CST.
Is that me all the way down here on my own sitting in the middle of the ocean LOL.
Latest track map puts us ( in Key West) just out of the picture, at least for a direct hit, Im sure were still going to get wet and windy. I hope all north of me ( ie everybody in Florida) stay safe and sound. By the way check your local stores for a windup lamp for about 12.95 No batteries needed. Great for storm time.
It's heading East and fast!
Dea