There's a hurricane on the way. Projected path to run right into the Big Island!
Storm headed this way!
Jeff Masters' Blog says:
While Felicia is an impressive hurricane now, its days of glory will be short-lived. Felicia is currently passing over a region of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 28.5°C, a full 2.5°C above the 26°C threshold needed to sustain a hurricane. These warm waters also extend to great depth, as seen on the Ocean Heat Content image (Figure 2). Felicia's west-northwest track will take the storm into a region of cooler waters with lower Oceanic Heat Content beginning tonight, which should induce a steady weakening trend beginning Thursday night. By Friday morning, SSTs should fall to 26°C, and decline to 25°C by Saturday. While wind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range over the next five days, 5 - 15 knots, the cooler SSTs should be able to significantly weaken the hurricane. By Monday, when most of the computer models indicate that Felicia will be nearing the Hawaiian Islands, the storm will be at tropical depression strength with top winds of about 35 mph, according to the latest runs of the HWRF and GFDL models. Exactly how close Felicia will get to the Hawaiian Islands is a bit tricky to call right now, since the hurricane is interacting with nearby Tropical Storm Enrique. Whenever two storms get within 900 miles of each other, they tend to rotate around a common center in a dance called the Fujiwhara Effect. This sort of storm-storm interaction is a complicated affair not well-handled by the computer forecast models.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1270
my favorite weather site for tropical weather.
Thanks Dutchlady. Very informative.
Keeping close watch on the storm just in case although we seem to be a little more protected than the BI - usually. Got plenty of bbq gas in, and food, water etc in case of electrical outage, which is what usually happens to us.
Keeping my fingers crossed for you folks on the BI.
Jen
Jeff Masters runs a good weather blog and gets a lot of input from both professional and amateur meteorologists. The JTWC in Hawaii also puts out a lot of good information. The NHC in Florida tends to be more cautious but even they predict the storm to have collapsed short of Hawaii. They put it down to 30 knots in 120 hours, still to the east of the islands.
Hawaii is fairly protected from cyclones by the remnants of the California current which sends cold water towards that part of the ocean keeping the sea temperatures down and making it nearly impossible for cyclones to intensify or even maintain their strength. But there'll probably be a lot of rain out of it.
hope that hurricane misses you!
i was just wondering Dutchlady1, are you actually Dutch? you know, the language Afrikaans which we speak at home is very similar to Dutch.
westraad
I was wondering if by Dutch you meant Dutch (Holland) or Deutch (Germany). I am part Pennsylvania Deutch (though most folks say Dutch)!
Update on the storm:
It is now a Category 4 storm with 138 mph winds. It is expected to weaken and become a tropical storm or tropical depression by the time it hits Hilo on Monday.
Still wise to tie down anything that can fly!
Most of these type of storms form out here where I am. We have had weeks now of extremely wet weather, with weird winds then complete stillness. I sure hope that all you get is gentle rains and a nice breeze. Take care, be safe and don't do anything silly. No sense tempting the elements!
Yokwe,
Shari
OOOOPS! That's hurricane-strength winds... Here's hoping that the storm will dissolve completely! I really hope and pray for a good prognosis! Take care, my Island friends!
Hugs,
Alexandra
Dutchlady meant netherlands, Deutch as in German is quite different, though related. ek verstaan dat ons snaaks praat vir julle, mevrou, lekker om te kan gesels. verstaan jy?
Looks like Felicia is wearing out but a hurricane of any catagory is scary. You have to prepare even though you know it probalby won't be anywhere near you. We have it down to a science but it is sitll a PITA.
We watch it...but don't obsess about it...whatever happens, happens! Personally, I would rather it NOT happen (too many big trees around)... It is down to a H2 now... At sea, anything can happen. Remember H. Iniki!!!! The seas are warming up and we have a long season to go!!!!
Hi.
I was watching The Weather Channel with my breakfast this morning and the first item that came on was about Felicia. They were forecasting that she might peter out before getting to TBI. It started my day on an optimistic note. But you are right, there is still most of the season ahead of us. In our case, they start tracking the systems just west of the coast of Africa. Some are headed our way, some not. Gail and I have been living in South-East Florida for 4 years now but we never saw a hurricane. At first, I wanted to see a hurricane. Now, I'm not see keen on that. It can wait. We're in no hurry.
Take care, all.
Sylvain.
Today, so far (it is only 8:00 am here) the sun is shining brightly, all my plants are blooming like crazy from all the rain of the last couple of weeks, a slight breeze...altogether gorgeous. Now that could change in a flash, but it's the prettiest morning in a long time, so hopefully there will be a respite in the storms coming your way.
Yokwe,
Shari
Well...she WAS projected to pass over us as a TD which is kind of benign...now it is projected to pass over - at night on Monday as a TS. Hope it turns around and goes down again.... This will be a good test to see if the mountains have much effect....
The remnants of Felicia are expected to only be carrying winds to 25 knots by the time they reach Hawaii (157 degrees west). There's a pressure ridge to the north which is deviating Felicia's track southwards making it possible that it may even pass to the south of the islands. The sea surface temps in that area are too low to breath life into the system plus there's high wind shear there as well. Although, even when winds abate these systems still carry a lot of water. It's nature's way of circulating warm and humid air into the temperate zones.
Good....tho it is still early. The winds are projected from the W quadrant which the trees are not braced for...we loose lots of trees in really strong Westerlies (aka Kona Winds)....
Do you have your canoe and paddle ready Carol?
Our biggest thing to deal with will probably be something like 24 inches of rain in 24 hours!
Good time to make a pot of soup!
YES!!! Good idea that pot of soup!!
Remember when we got something like 37" in 24 hours....! Yikes!
Better go put oil in the lamps and break out the candles!!!
I was thinking of fertilizing before it hit...but with that much rain, it will just wash away...better afterwards!!
I'm hoping my beans, peppers, and taro still have leaves after!
I never fertilize in the wet season, but if you have rain all year round it would be a bit difficult.
We fertilize every 10inches of rain...unless it is particularly rainy, then we wait so it won't get washed away!!!!
And we're still in the depths of winter here, the temp only got up to 34C today. The UV index only managed 11. Might need that pot of soup here.
your winter temps sound very the same as here, Tbreeze. the coldest it has gotten in the past ten years here was a week ago, 11 degrees Celsius! whats the hottest temps you get there during the summer? do you have a dry heat, or a humid heat?
It is kind of weird. When there is a storm coming this way we pack up the dog and cat, grab the insurance info and head inland. We live at 14.5' and under certain circumstances it is prudent to get out of here. But you guys on the BI don't have a lot of "inland" that is accessible.
Hi, everyone.
Ardesia, 14.5 feet above sea level is relatively high compared to Florida. When I got here, we went to Everglades National Park. Along the road, we found a sing that read: 3 feet 4 inches above sea level. We drove on and about 5 miles later, another sign read: 3 feet 9 inches above sea level. I told everyone I thought I had felt my ears pop. They all laughed.
Take care,
Sylvain.
LOL, I have seen those signs in FL and it is hysterical. 14.5 is the elevation where our house is. Just about two hundred feet away however the elevation is a big 0.
The worst place to be in a storm in Hawai'i is down by the coast. A few years ago more than a dozen houses were destroyed along the Puna coast in a storm.
At 900 ft. elev. we don't have to worry about that up here, but as Carol said there may be some trees that come down.
Highest point on Kwaj is Mt. Olympus...a 67 ft. man-made hill that was intended as a missle silo, but never used for that purpose. When we have tropical storms, we have an evacuation plan...but it is usually best to not try to go out to our "designated area"...better to just head upstairs...winds can't blow you away if you don't leave the house! Even the powers that be have said, if you have an upstairs, just go there. We don't get to many bad storms, but when we do they are doozy's! People have t-shirts: "I survived Tropical Storm Roy"...
Yokwe,
Shari
Let me tell you a true story. May I be struck dead if I lie.
One of the highest points I have visited in Hawai'i is Nu'uanu Pali. I wouldn't go back there on a bet. The place is haunted during the daytime, for crying out loud. There we were taking in the view when a gust of wind suddenly pushed ME away from the observation deck's railing and I swear I heard ghosts howling in my ears. I flew to my car, the wind at my back and I got out of there on 2 wheels, I tell you what.
How I managed not to soil and disgrace myself is beyond me. When we returned to our hotel, I was still pretty shaken. I mentionned going to Nu'anu Pali to the concierge. She asked me if I heard the ghosts. I just looked at her. I didn't answer but she gave me one of those knowing glances. We changed the subject quickly. I want to return to Hawai'i but never there. Based on that eerie experience, I refused to even set foot near Pearl Harbor.
Take care, all.
Sylvain.
Cool story, Sylvain... There are ghosts all around here...some places more noticeable. There were ghosts in the hospital where I had my back surgery...and green ti leaves put on the doors going into the theatres to keepthem away. Yikes!!! Not all ghosts are naughty....
Very mysterious!
Storm update.
The hurricane is unexpectedly holding and may remain a hurricane when it hits.
The projected path will now affect Maui as well as Hawai'i Island.
All County beaches from Laupahoehoe to Ka'u will be closed starting Sunday afternoon, tomorrow.
Take care folks!
Aloha all,
Well, we spent a good part of the morning filling sand bags, just in case. Our house is on the bottom road of a rather steep area, and my drive way slopes down toward the house so we thought it might be a good idea to try to be prepared THIS time - well, as much as you ever can be. We managed 50 sand bags in all - wheew, it's hard work! We have 25 in place along the foundations, and a stack of 25 ready to put across the top of the driveway if needed.
On Maui whenever there is a hurrican watch and we have to "get prepared" the stores quickly run out of toilet paper, rice, water and BEER - in that order! Just shows you what is important in life doesn't it?
LOL Sylvain, that was a friendly ghost up there on the Pali, warning you not to go so close to the edge...but don't go messing with any young, beautiful girl walking along the roadway - it might just be Madam Pele. Personally I love the menehune that I know are living in my garden!
Hope you guys on the BI don't get too much in the way of rain - I see that you are spreading the wealth this time, and sending some our way - mahalo we need some, but not too much please!
Will do our best, Jenny. Just how many inches would you like? After the rain you get?!!! HAHA. Not liking the idea of strong W winds and brittle eucalyptus just W. f the house = falling down on house? Oh...maybe I could get a new one!!! Smaller and tighter construction.... We'll see!!!!!