Tropical Storm Ike

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1400 MILES...2250 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

GIVEN THE WARM OCEAN ALONG ITS PATH AND THE LOW SHEAR...IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

...IKE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1030 MILES ...1655 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IKE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.

...IKE BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT LAND AREAS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE AFFECTED BY IKE.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IKE HAS INTENSIFIED SOME MORE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. IT IS EXPECTED THAT IKE WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORY FOUR OR CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IKE HAS INTENSIFIED FURTHER...WITH THE EYE EMBEDDED IN EVEN COLDER CLOUD TOPS THAN BEFORE. THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE UP TO 6.5 WHICH SUPPORTS AN INTENSITY OF 125 KT...AND THIS IS USED FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY. IN SUCH INTENSE HURRICANES...FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO INNER-CORE EVOLUTIONS SUCH AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS OVER 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR ON IKE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE. THIS LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCE SHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING... AND THAT IS WHAT IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST. LATER ON IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS PROBABLE AS THE SHEAR WEAKENS AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE BUT IT REFLECTS OUR LACK OF SKILL IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY IN 3-5 DAYS.

SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...IKE EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD OVERNIGHT....

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.2 WEST OR ABOUT 505 MILES...815
KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.

NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS
PREDICTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH IS
ANTICIPATED TO CAUSE SOME WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST...
WHICH IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IS AGAIN BETWEEN
THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE THAT CALLS FOR MORE WEAKENING AND THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH MAINTAIN AN INTENSE HURRICANE. IN ABOUT 2
DAYS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW IKE TO
RE-STRENGTHEN.

IT APPEARS THAT IKE HAS TURNED WESTWARD THIS EVENING OR 275/12...
HOWEVER A SHORTER TERM MOTION IS ESSENTIALLY DUE WESTWARD. IKE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS...TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE. THEREAFTER...IKE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND BEGIN TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE TURN TAKE PLACE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN TWO DISTINCT BRANCHES...THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW THE
TURN OCCURRING OVER THE BAHAMAS....WHILE THE HWRF...GFDL...AND
ECMWF TAKE IKE OVER CUBA OR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. UNTIL IT
BECOME CLEAR AS TO WHICH ONE OF THESE SOLUTIONS WILL PREVAIL...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN THEM...CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

...MAJOR HURRICANE IKE HEADED WESTWARD...

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A SLIGHT TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TONIGHT OR EARLY ON
SATURDAY...WITH A TURN BACK TO THE WEST EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...IKE COULD BE NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT IKE IS STILL FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

IT CANNOT BE SAID ENOUGH THAT FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS
CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT THE
MODEL SPREAD IS STILL NOTABLE BEYOND 72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.

IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT-TERM AND IKE COULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY TOMORROW.

IKE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR VERY NEAR CUBA DURING THE 36-72 HR TIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING. THE DEGREE OF WEAKENING WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW CLOSE IKE TRACKS TO LAND.

BY DAY 4...IKE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE BACK OVER OPEN WATERS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OCEAN SHOULD BE PLENTY WARM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR IKE TO RESTRENGTHEN AT 96 AND 120 HR. GIVEN THE EVOLVING ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND LAND INTERACTIONS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IKE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 949 MB...28.23 INCHES.

WITH
THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER IKE NOW RELAXING AND THE WATERS ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK WARM...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE UNTIL
IKE REACHES CUBA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. ONCE OVER LAND...WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE CYCLONE EMERGES BACK OVER WATER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...ONLY A
SMALL DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP THE
CORE OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER AND LESS WEAKENING COULD OCCUR. SOME
RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE IKE DEPARTS CUBA SINCE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. SINCE THE WATERS OVER THE GULF ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE HIGH... RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.


IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.