Climate Change and Natural Tree Distribution

I have wondered how tree species will adapt to climate change on the northern edge of their natural distribution. Historically we have had a short growing season in Vermont and our trees have adapted to fewer frost free days to grow and produce fruit or seed than trees of the same species further south. Will our local trees be at a disadvantage as our climate changes?

Will tree species retreat to a spot more at the center of their distribution and then possibly expand outward again?

MIght the introduction of trees from further south enhance the survivability of some natural communities?

I have been a strong advocate of doing all ecological restoration with plant material of a local seed source. Now with projections of higher temperatures and an increase in rainfall I'm wondering if our forests are threatened with a different length of growing season as well as pests and diseases we haven't had in this region.

There are a lot of unknowns because we don't just have climate warming, we have climate destabilization. While I suffer droughts and storms here in Illinois, and Resin over in England suffers Manitoba winters if the ocean currents are altered, you might have warmer winters, monsoons, lack of winter snow cover, or perhaps something else. In general, I think I would still go with your local sources for restoration work because whatever happens will be happening on a regional scale. But for your yard, you could gamble a little.

Guy S.

Diversity. The more diverse the number of species, the better chances that if there's a problem year not everything will be wiped out. The more plants, the cooler the temps in even a small area for summer and for winter the less severe a bad winter will have on the plants.

If you can believe the show I watched last night you wont have to worry about any of it because everything from Kentucky northward will be covered with ice.

The main problem is that currect climate change is so fast that the great majority of plants can't keep up with the move. There are very few plants that have natural colonisation abilities of over 1-2km per year, and the current climate change is moving tens of km per year. And that's in optimum conditions - most plants can't cope at all with crossing human-created barriers like fields dosed up with herbicides and ploughed once a year. There are huge barriers to plant migration now that simply did not exist 200 years ago.

By and large, tree species will retreat to the northern edges of their ranges, and what will replace them is a hotch-potch of human-introduced species from warmer climates that may, or (perhaps more often) may not, be native to the same continent.

Resin


This message was edited Aug 16, 2006 7:45 PM

I will continue to only use local seed sources for restoration work but I am considering expanding upon my collection of native trees from various locations of their range. What I see this collection offering is a genetic collection of trees that might be able to live, thrive and reproduce in a Vermont with a changing climate. This hopefully will be taking place after I have long since started to "push up" oaklings (versus daisies). I grew up in Vermont and our weather has changed drasticly. Last winter we didn't have frost in the ground until January and sugaring started sooner than anyone had ever known. When I was a child cardinals, mockingbirds, titmice, turkey vultures and others were all tropical birds they are all now common. Our weather has gotten much warmer and wetter. What is going to happen over time is unknown but the New England that my family has known for 12 generations no longer exists. Can we offer help to trees and shrubs that can't move northward quickly enough? Can we do this without compromising the local gene pool?

Chad, guess I'll need to move back home to Auburn!
While most of the hand-wringing-global-warming-Man-is-the-cause-of-all-the-problems -sign-the-Kyoto-Accord crowd don't want to consider the possibility that it's a natural cyclical thing, and that we might actually be hurtling toward the next Ice Age - in spite of anythying we can do, and they usually bash & pooh-pooh me when I post this link, I'll throw it out again - http://www.iceagenow.com/Pacemaker.htm

David,
I've moved some AL/TX/OK provenance oaks here to KY, and they seem to be doing well, though 10-15 years isn't much of a trial period; am I 'polluting' the local germplasm? Maybe.
In my exploring, I'm frequently finding a number of pecans that resemble the large-fruited Southern varieties much more so than the typical northern/midwestern types - and some of these big papershell types are confounding the 'experts' who say that 'Mahan' and the like *shouldn't* be able to mature their nuts here in KY & IN - but they do!
However, I'm NOT going to move any Chinese tallow/popcorn trees (Sapium sebiferum) up here!

I corresponded for a number of years with an elderly fruit/nut enthusiast in east-central AL, who'd been collecting and breeding good timber-type black walnuts across The South for 35 years - mostly in AL, MS, & GA; he was interested in finding someone in the Upper South or Midwest who was interested in picking up his breeding program, as he, too, thought they might have some promise in the event that the dire predictions of global warming came to pass. Last time I talked with him, he had finally found someone he thought was going to 'pick up the ball and run with it'.

Lucky, that's basically the same thing that was said on that TV show. I think it was on the Discovery Channel. The two theories certainly do clash don't they?

Chad

There has been a 40% increase in carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere (to 381ppm currently) since the industrial revolution, most of this increase occurring in the last 40-50 years. This is the highest concentration at any time in the last 20 million years http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/107.htm#331

That increase cannot do anything other than have a significant effect on the atmosphere, greatly over-riding any natural fluctuation.

Resin

I agree with both Lucky and Resin, based upon research being done by my colleagues at the Illinois State Museum. We are probably entering a natural climate cycle the severity of which our species has never seen, and we are making it much, much worse by our actions. But we'd better stop here or the political ramifications will raise their ugly heads.

Guy S.

"consider the possibility that it's a natural cyclical thing, and that we might actually be hurtling toward the next Ice Age - in spite of anythying we can do,"

One of the shows I saw recently stated that the previous Ice Ages followed a predictable time frame, occuring every 11,500 years, like clockwork. The reason for this regular and drastic change in planetary climate was the orbit of the Earth around the Sun. Apparently the Earth orbit follows an eliptical pattern that gradualy changes over thousands of years positioning the Earth either close during warm periods, or much farther away from the Sun during the glacial periods. If this is true, it wouldn't matter much how badly we wreak the atmosphere because if the Earth was in the part of its orbit that is waning from the Sun, the result would be a cooler climate anyway. Of course, it wouldn't hurt to take care of the planet so that while we are freezing we could still breath...

I believe we may very well be hurtling toward the next ice age however as noted by resin, we have incredibly high concentrations of carbon dioxide present that most certainly must be exacerbating current warming events.

I'm going for the David_Vermont approach. I had been using local seed sources for restoration and will continue to do so but not exclusively any longer. I began to expand by including native species from a host of locations representative of their range a few years ago. I am doing this with both woody and herbaceous native species. Makes sense to me to strengthen the gene pool for what ever is coming our way even though I will be pushing up "oaklings" with him by the time I'd get to see any results.

Hey Equil! I am going thru the "very busy working on two yards" frenzy at the moment. Exciting news! I have just discovered that the huge 'ditch'at my Coldwater house has sprouted multitudes of Hickery seedlings (Carya glabra, or Pignut Hickery, I think). There must be forty of them. Yea Ha! And the parent trees are covered with nuts. I intend to collect as many nuts as I can and will be happy to share some if I can beat the wild life to them. If I ever get the hang of this new digital camera I just got, I will post pics to a new thread. Look for it soon!
Are we still on for the other seedling you mentioned earlier this year? I am trying to decide where to put it or them :)

C. glabra! I want! I have one Pignut Hickory sapling here that was from Lucky's seed and it's doing great. I would love to have a few more. Love those fruiting woodies!

Have fun with the new digital camera- I gave up on mine and went online and ordered an older model of what I trashed that I knew how to use- point and click!

Yes, we're still on for the other seedlings!

Us Northerners rely on Lucky to fill our ecosystems with southern ecotypes of various trees and shrubs. My Alabama oaks are doing ok so far, along with all the other plants he has sent my way. Thanks Lucky, for assuring the North will have plants growing long after Kentucky has become a desert!

And many thanks to Rick for helping us Midwesterners with the northern ecotypes for when he's under ice!

A few more years of drought like we've had this year and Alabama will be a desert.

Hmm, Opuntia humifusa? Just kidding with you.

Dessert?
Did someone just say dessert??
Ice cream???

Guy S.

Girl Scout Thin Mints work quite nicely for me.

I started growing Opuntia humifusa last year. I transplanted some pads from an old abandoned house of my great aunts. I started one from seed too. I guess I'm getting prepared. lol

I ate some of the fruits too. Not bad

We keep it in pots, but I wouldn't want to start that hazardous stuff outdoors and let it get out of control. Maybe some other cacti without glochids -- or Agaves, Dasylirion, etc. ?
Guy S.

I should have mentioned this before. I am testing a lot of southern species here that aren't in our local flora. But I'm a little hesitant to bring in southern genotypes of plants that are already here, fearing genetic contamination. That being said, we do have a couple of provenance tests going on, so I guess I'm not a purist.

Guy S.

He started them as his secret weapon to keep you and Johnny Mimosa Seed out of his State. He's armed and dangerous.

Say whaaaaaaaa? The keeper of the Abomination "guesses" he's not a purist???

When I first went and got them I didn't realize that the fruit had tiny little thorns all over it too. I stuck my hand down there and pulled one off and thought I was going to die. I had to drive 40 miles back home with all those stickers in my hand.

I got them to remember my great aunt, who passed away Christmas Day 2001. She was kind of a cold acting lady so I guess the plant fits her just right.

This message was edited Aug 19, 2006 8:18 PM

This message was edited Aug 19, 2006 8:19 PM

I've gotten nailed by them a few times myself. What's really a big bummer is that the spines are the same color as my skin and when they break off you almost always have to use a magnifying glass and you almost always have to use a razor blade to cut a slit in your own hand so you can get in there with a tweezers and get those things out! Oh the pain. I hate pain.

I like cactus. But I stick with ones that don't practically shoot the thorns at you. (Stick - did I make a funny?) Escobaria vivipara, Escobaria leei, Pediocatus simpsonii, Echinocereus coccineus, that's what I am growing now. And since someone mentioned agave, I also have Manfreda virginiana's started from seed from Ohio too.

Rick

I'm not a lover of cactus. The Opuntia are the only plants I have that I have to use tongs to transplant. Even then I've nailed myself. Did I mention I'm not into pain?

We grow many fascinating cacti, agaves, and other succulents here. They're wondferful about not being too upset if you go away for a month and leave them unattended! Here's Leuchtenbergia principis, the cactus that thinks it's an agave!

As I have always said,
the only unbroken rule in the plant world is that there are no unbroken rules. Well, you know what I mean.

A most excellent plant (and example), Guy.

Rick

It wasn't long ago we supposed to be heading into another ice age. Now we're supposed to be warming up at a huge uncontrolled rate. Who knows for sure? Know one knows, the earths cilmate has never been that steady of a thing.

By the way what happened to the hole in the ozone layer? I haven't heard whether that's continued to get bigger or has it started to fill back in?? I have more fear of that situation then others.

Global warming might trigger an ice age. A lot of the North Atlantic is kept warm by the current flowing northward. Then the water gets colder and sinks. Warm water coming up from the south pushes the colder water south again.

But global warming is melting the glaciers and ice caps. Glaciers and ice caps are made out of fallen snow, which is fresh water. Put enough of this cold, fresh (rather than salt) water into the northern Atlantic, and it will disrupt this nice warm current. If the current shuts down, no warm water in the north Atlantic, and it'll begin to cool down. Cools down enough, we get more snow, the snow reflects more sunlight, cooling the temperatures further, we get more snow, which reflects more sunlight....

Two things (at least) really not good with changing the global climate the way we're doing.

One, we can't really be sure what the final outcome will be, so we won't really know what to prepare for. Canada, northern Europe and the American Northeastern states might be colder than they've been for a long time. But Mexico, the Southwest, and part of the Great Plains might face another Dust Bowl.

Two, it's happening FAST! Not in 2000 years, but in our lifetimes. Again, we won't know quite what to prepare for, and we probably won't get enough time. And the speed in which this is happening is something that a lot of plants can't get used to fast enough.

Changing our planet the way we have been doing is a Bad Thing, and I'm all for finding ways to slow it down so we can at least get a handle on it and learn to adapt.

And, btw, I'm not an idiot. My science degree is in chemistry with supporting work in physics and biology. I've worked for the EPA, a couple different environmental consulting firms, and for four years for the GSA.

If you win the lottery, don't buy your own private island. It may not be there in ten years.

White_Hydrangea, as you probably noticed, last winter was extremely odd here in the Denver area. I had snapdragons that were still green in January(!) and all my tulips tried to emerge weeks earlier. Now I'm seeing plants go into dormancy a full 4 weeks ahead of schedule. I can put my hands in the soil of my garden right now and tell you something very wrong is happening in the dirt itself, and my plants know it.

Plants can survive natural variations in climate trends quite well. I am more concerned about the "lack of trend" due to disruption of the natural cycles of gas exchange, precipitation, etc. influenced by global climate instability.

Does Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle apply here?

With a degree of concern about man-made changes to the climate, and an attendent interest in a modicum of stabilization to the errant patterns that may emerge, then some might say that it does NOT follow to introduce further variables to the environment.

Maybe there's a Heisenbug at work here.

Evidently this depends upon one's modus operandi which appears to vary from thread to thread. I do believe the observer effect entered the equation as I'm seeing a little bit of manipulation present.

Hi Hydrangea alba

Nature/weather is capricious at best, and, IMO, we don't know enough about it to rock the boat the way we're doing and expect not to get wet.

We're treating the planet as if it were a chemistry beaker. We're doing an experiment in the beaker, and we don't really know what the result is going to be.

Trouble is, it's our ONLY beaker.

To bring this back around to gardening, for the next 3-5 years I have a good idea what I want to do with my garden, and the results I get will probably fall into a comparatively small range.

But I have a 30 year mortgage, and I might well be in this house for that entire time. What kind of conditions will my garden have to deal with 10-20-30 years down the road?

When I moved from Chicago 22 years ago, there were several areas that I considered moving to: Boston, Florida, South Carolina, Arizona, Pacific Northwest. Quite honestly, one of the reasons I chose the Front Range is that it was one of the more geologically and meteorologically stable areas on my list. No earthquakes, no hurricanes, no tsunami, few tornadoes this close to the mountains, no blazing hot summers and arctic winters like Chicago, and a minimum of creepy crawlies compared to other areas.

Of course, 22 years ago, I was worried about litter on the highway, overflowing landfills, and pesticides in the water supply, not global concerns like ozone holes and global warming.

In the Denver area the most likely thing to effect your garden would be increased water restrictions. If you plant all xeric now (which can be very beautiful indeed!) you will be way ahead of the game. Regardless of global weather patterns it appears that the frontrange will have more people than even a historically normal amount of precipitation can support. Add the probable reduced mountain snowpack & loss of winter moisture and you have a recipe for disaster if you choose to maintain a typical suburban lawn.