Got this in an email today from Floridian:
Quoting:
ALREADY??!! TS Adrian and it isn’t even hurricane season yet.
First Named Tropical Storm of 2005
HURRICANE ADRIAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1015 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005
... CORRECTED HEADER INFORMATION ...
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
ADRIAN HAS REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH AND A SPECIAL ADVISORY ON
HURRICANE ADRIAN WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep1+shtml/175025.shtml?5day
Headed across Central America and towards Cuba...
Darius, these storms that gather strength just before they hit land are really scarey. Andrew did that, now they say it was a class 5 when it hit, they were expecting a class 3. Charlie, that hit Punta Gorda last year did the same thing. Turned into a 4, hung a right and hit 100 miles south of predicted landfall.
If Adrian holds strength across the mountains in Honduras and gets to the Gulf, it's Katie bar the door!!
Going to be a looooooooooog season!
Pati
Yeah, but we'll do a DG watch for our own as always!
Yep.
Below is the forecast for the 2005 Hurricane Season. The table not only gives the OCSI percent risk of landfalling storms along the North America Coast 2005 but also gives the percent risk based on the average number of landfalls years for a particular section using the entire record 1871 to 1995.
2005 OCSI FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC
COAST OCSI CLIMATOLOGY
Mexico 40%, 40%
Texas 70%, 51%
Louisiana to Alabama 50%, 59%
West Florida 70%, 71%
East Florida 30%, 41%
Georgia to N. Carolina 60%, 56%
East Coast of US 20%, 36%
Gulf Oil Blocks 81%, 88%
Bahamas 70%
In order to compare WRC’s Annual Hurricane Outlook to other seasonal forecasts, WRC meteorologists issue secondary predictors as shown in the table below.
Secondary 2005 Predictors from the OCSI:
Number of Storms : 10
Number of Hurricanes: 5
Number of Hurricane Days: 21
US Landfalls: 4
Cat 3 or Higher Storms: 50%
Info from: http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook/hur2005.htm
HIGHEST STRIKE PROBABILITY 2006-2010
http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook/fcst2.htm
Interesting chart, Number of Hurricanes Forecast, and Observed 2001-2005
Many more Observed than Forecast!
darius...you gotta be kidding. This is unrealllll. What's your address.......
Hap, I'm in the DG Address Exchange... if you were serious about wanting it!
I don't know nuthin', but isn't Central America mountainous? Won't a hurricane lose most of its strength crossing there?
One would think so, but the NOAA predictors say it will gain strength over open water.
It will get a new name when it reaches the Atlantic.
If this remains a named storm when it reaches the Gulf, it will be the first storm in history to have a sex change!!! From Adrian (male) to Arlene (female). The world just gets stranger and stranger LOL
Pati
LOL, that's funny Pati!
Downgraded to a TS but who knows when it gets back over water?
Funny.
Pati, now we may never get to know if they'd change the name/gender or not, LOL.
That's just fine with me.
sidney
NOAA’s 2005 Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates a 70% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. This outlook is produced by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Hurricane Research Division (HRD), and National Hurricane Center (NHC).
The outlook calls for 12-15 tropical storms, with 7-9 becoming hurricanes, and 3-5 of these becoming major hurricanes. This prediction reflects a very likely continuation of above-normal activity that began in 1995.
June first thru June twelth is Hurricane Preparedness here in Florida. We can buy our hurricane supplies tax free at that time. Grab you generators, batteries, flashlights, etc!
By the way, anyone check on the Bermuda High to see where it is and if it has moved off Bermuda? If it has not, we are in for another year like last year.
It was not expected to move, so expect more like las year.