Weather: First Named Tropical Storm of 2005, 1 by darius

darius wrote:
Below is the forecast for the 2005 Hurricane Season. The table not only gives the OCSI percent risk of landfalling storms along the North America Coast 2005 but also gives the percent risk based on the average number of landfalls years for a particular section using the entire record 1871 to 1995.

2005 OCSI FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC

COAST OCSI CLIMATOLOGY

Mexico 40%, 40%
Texas 70%, 51%
Louisiana to Alabama 50%, 59%
West Florida 70%, 71%
East Florida 30%, 41%
Georgia to N. Carolina 60%, 56%
East Coast of US 20%, 36%
Gulf Oil Blocks 81%, 88%
Bahamas 70%

In order to compare WRC’s Annual Hurricane Outlook to other seasonal forecasts, WRC meteorologists issue secondary predictors as shown in the table below.

Secondary 2005 Predictors from the OCSI:

Number of Storms : 10

Number of Hurricanes: 5

Number of Hurricane Days: 21

US Landfalls: 4

Cat 3 or Higher Storms: 50%
Info from: http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook/hur2005.htm

HIGHEST STRIKE PROBABILITY 2006-2010
http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook/fcst2.htm

Interesting chart, Number of Hurricanes Forecast, and Observed 2001-2005
Many more Observed than Forecast!