Winter Weather Forecasts - Which One Do You Trust?

Winter weather forecasts
Which one do you trust? Almanacs, forecasters differ in predictions
Brian Mulherin - Daily News Staff Writer
Friday, October 26, 2007

How do you tell what kind of winter we’re going to have? Sure, you can consult a farmer’s almanac, but if you consult two, you’ll see they go in different directions. AccuWeather, the Weather Channel and the National Weather Service also vary significantly in their opinions on the coming winter from year to year.
Some people rely on signs from nature, like heavy pinecones, lots of acorns or some other kind of nut. Some look to the woolly worms, although most people can’t remember if more orange or more black is significant — and what do the all white ones mean?
Ardith Merten of the Oceana Grange said her black walnut trees tell her whether it’s going to snow or not. To her, heavy black walnuts mean heavy snow.
“My lawn is completely covered in black walnuts, so you know what kind of a winter we’re going to have,” she said. “Last year we didn’t have very many walnuts, this year you wouldn’t believe how many walnuts we have.”
Of course, Merten noted that a friend of hers said she had no black walnuts just a few miles away.
Still she’s sticking by what her trees tell her and she said that the trees accurately predicted this summer.
“If the ash leaf out before the oak, it’ll be as summer of fire and smoke; if the oak leafs out before the ash, it’ll be a summer of splish splash,” she said. “The ash leafed out first this year and it sure was a hot, dry summer.”
Alan Wernette, the interpreter at Ludington State Park, said he’s not sure if any of the folklore methods of weather prediction have much merit.
“I used to always believe if we had a heavy crop of acorns we would have a long and cold winter,” Wernette said. “That’s what I used to believe. The last few years, we’ve had a good crop of acorns and the winters haven’t been that cold.”
In a comparison of forecasts for the 2006-2007 winter season, the clear winner last year was AccuWeather. The company’s forecast said the Midwest would see a mild start to the winter and colder-than-normal temperatures in January and February.
This year, AccuWeather is calling for temperatures between two and four degrees above normal, according to Meteorologist Bob Klug.
“As far as precipitation goes, you guys are right on the edge of where we have above-normal precipitation of between 125 and 150 percent,” Klug said. “As far as snow and ice, it looks like you guys are at normal levels.”
Klug said November weather should start off fairly cool, then warm in December. Warmth should continue in January and February. March and April may be below normal.
Bill Marino, a climate expert with the National Weather Service’s Grand Rapids office, said this winter will likely start cold and snowy, warm up through January and February and be cold again late. He arrived at this prediction not just through the Climate Prediction Center’s computer model, but also through his own study of past winters.
“I myself looked at all the winters that followed when we had a neutral summer, which is what we had, then a La Niña in the fall,” Marino said. “What typically happens with that sort of weather pattern is it’s very warm in the summer, very warm in the fall, then somewhere in mid-November it would become drastically cold. Essentially I believed the odds favored below-normal temperatures in November to mid December, then a warmup in January and February, and a cool-down in March to mid-April.”
Marino noted that October will be one of the warmest on record, even with a cool down this week.
But a cool down to normal doesn’t quite go far enough in describing what we’re likely to see, he said.
“There’s going to be a dramatic change in the weather, probably in the next two or three weeks,” Marino said.
Marino said although most years with above-average snowfall have slightly above-average temperatures, but this year cold weather will move in fast enough that the Great Lakes will still be warm, which is an ideal condition for snowmaking.

Date published: 10-26-2007

Thanks for the info Loon. I was wondering what the experts were predicting for Mich.
I'm not sure it changes anything. I will just get ready for what I believe will be LOTS of snow!!!
Julie

Actually, I pay attention to the fur on the squrriels around here. The furrier the tail, the colder the winter. It works for me anyway.

Well please let us all know how furry the tails are...I mean the squirrels of course..LOL!!! hehehehe!

I try not to worrie about it I cant change it so its one day at a time but MAN I dont like the ice!!!!!!!!!!!
Gloria

jazzzy704...the little buggers do have real furry tails now. More so than this time last year. The younger squrriels are the ones to watch. When their little bodies have a tail that looks like it will weigh them down, cold temps are about to prevail for quite a while.

glevely...I don't like cold weather either...with or without the ice. If Katrina hadn't come ashore, wife and I would be living "Down South" where snow doesn't present a problem. But then again, Algonac hasn't had a hurricane in YEARS. Tornados....I don't know, but I have been in a few of those also.
Later!