Winter Predictions.....what's yours?

IT WAS ALREADY LATE FALL AND THE INDIANS ON A REMOTE RESERVATION IN SOUTH DAKOTA ASKED THEIR NEW CHIEF IF THE COMING WINTER WAS GOING TO BE COLD OR MILD.

SINCE HE WAS A CHIEF IN A MODERN SOCIETY HE HAD NEVER BEEN TAUGHT >THE OLD SECRETS. WHEN HE LOOKED AT THE SKY HE COULD NOT TELL WHAT THE WINTER WAS GOING TO BE LIKE.

NEVERTHELESS, TO BE ON THE SAFE SIDE, HE TOLD HIS TRIBE THAT THE WINTER WAS INDEED GOING TO BE COLD AND THAT THE MEMBERS OF THE VILLAGE SHOULD COLLECT FIREWOOD TO BE PREPARED.

BEING A PRACTICAL LEADER, AFTER SEVERAL DAYS HE GOT AN IDEA. HE WENT TO THE PHONE BOOTH, CALLED THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND ASKED, "IS THE COMING WINTER GOING TO BE COLD?"

"IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WINTER IS GOING TO BE QUITE COLD," THE METEOROLOGIST AT THE WEATHER SERVICE RESPONDED.

SO THE CHIEF WENT BACK TO HIS PEOPLE AND TOLD THEM TO COLLECT EVEN MORE FIREWOOD IN ORDER TO BE PREPARED.

A WEEK LATER HE CALLED THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AGAIN. "DOES IT STILL LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING TO BE A VERY COLD WINTER?"

"YES," THE MAN AT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AGAIN REPLIED, "IT'S GOING TO BE A VERY COLD WINTER."

THE CHIEF AGAIN WENT BACK TO HIS PEOPLE AND ORDERED THEM TO COLLECT EVERY SCRAP OF FIREWOOD THEY COULD FIND.

TWO WEEKS LATER THE CHIEF CALLED THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AGAIN. "ARE YOU ABSOLUTELY SURE THAT THE WINTER IS GOING TO BE VERY COLD?"

"ABSOLUTELY," THE MAN REPLIED. "IT'S LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE IT IS GOING TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST WINTERS WE'VE EVER SEEN."

"HOW CAN YOU BE SO SURE? " THE CHIEF ASKED.

THE WEATHERMAN REPLIED, "THE INDIANS ARE COLLECTING FIREWOOD LIKE CRAZY.

I found one wooly bear. It was all black and dead. I don't even want to tink about what that means.

Farmer’s Almanac says it has a 80 percent accuracy rate



Jeff Broddle | Cadillac News
A farmer in Osceola County tends to hay recently. According to the FarmerÕs Almanac, the weather in 2008 looks to be a little dryer and warmer which has been the trend recently.
By Rick Charmoli, Cadillac News

El Nino or La Nina, past trends and maybe even a little luck all play a part when it comes to forecasting the weather.

That being said, when it comes down to it, long-range weather forecast accuracy is dependant on a lot of things and sometimes they are not always right. Since 1792, the Farmer’s Almanac has been predicting weather for regions and depending on whom you ask, it has done a good or bad job.

Robert B. Thomas was the editor the premiere issue of “The Old Farmer’s Almanac.” Almanacs are designed to record and predict astronomical events, tides, weather and other phenomena with respect to time.

Thomas used a complex series of natural cycles to devise a secret weather forecasting formula. The forecasts are said to be 80 percent accurate.

Jim Keysor knows all about how accuracy is important in a job.

As a meteorologist a the National Weather Service in Gaylord, Keysor said the Farmer’s Almanac and his profession use some of the same models to make long-term predictions.

“As far as how accurate it has been depends on who you talk to. The Farmer’s Almanac says it has an accuracy of like 80 percent. We don’t do a comparison but my guess is that if you read the Farmer’s Almanac, the predictions are broad,” Keysor said. “The official winter forecast from the NWS has not come out yet. The farmer’s almanac predictions depend on things like El Nino or La Nina and that plays into their forecast as well as ours.”


In the 2008 edition of the almanac, it states that the Lower Lakes and Upper Midwest regions, which includes the entire state of Michigan, should see a winter that is warmer than normal with near to below normal snowfall amounts.

In the spring, the predictions call for warmer and drier conditions than normal with summer having normal to below normal temperatures with average to below normal rainfall.

For the most part, Keysor said the NWS’s predictions are about the same and that does not surprise him at all.

“A lot of the reason the two will sound similar is because of trends of the United States developing into a La Nina,” he said. “If you had to summarize the winter in general it will have a cold start with more snowfall. January will be the transition month with the second half being warmer and less snow at the tail end.”


Although Dave Stroud has been working at the Missaukee County Michigan State Extension for quite some time, he said he does not recall any of the farmers he has worked with using the almanac for a guide of when to plant or as an indication of how the weather is going to be.

“Years ago they used to plant on the exact day. Before the national forecasts and technology it was as good as there was,” Stroud said. “Now we can see the national weather maps and the weather trends by taking the temperatures of the oceans. To say it is going to be hotter and drier doesn’t surprise me. Most of the Midwest and United States has been that way.”


Your Local Connection

Weather predictions in 2008

Upper Midwest (includes northwest and northeast lower Michigan and the Upper Pennisula)

Winter temperatures will be about four degrees above normal in the east and one degree above normal in the west on average. Precipitation will be near normal with much below normal snowfall. The coldest temperatures will be in early to mid January and mid-February. The heaviest snowfalls will occur in mid-November, mid-December and late January.

April will be warmer and drier than normal. May will be rainier than normal with near normal temperatures despite a warm beginning and end to the month.

Summer temperatures will be near normal with much below rainfall. The hottest part will be in mid to late June and mid and late July.

September and October will have below normal precipitation with above normal temperatures. October will be one of the warmest on record.

http://www.cadillacnews.com/articles/2007/09/24/news/news02.txt

LOL@ Brenda-thas cute

I am not looking forward to the cold!

I predict that Spring is 6 months away.

I just hope there is enough snow to keep everything shielded from the bitter cold Feb. that always comes!!!

Here is my prediction.
We will have high winds in Nov.
We will have zero and below temps for 1 to 2 weeks this winter, otherwise it will be about 10' -35'. We will have several snowfalls in March.

Every year it seems the same, yet we always bundle up and say how long the winter is, how cold it is, and complain about snow in March.

Granny is right on...6 months winter, 2 months for each of the other seasons.

hahaha isnt eveyone funny???? i also do not like the winter. even more every year... but so glad i do not have any more babies to bundle up... all i know is that you are right there granny about spring being roughly 6 mos away!!!! then we have the task of cleaning up after the winter ugh. oh well we have to do it every year right? yet we love our state. Ronna

Very cute, I enjoyed that!!!!

Let it snow? Forecast not promising



The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its yearly Winter Forecast and it looks a lot like last year's. Forecasters say that here in Minnesota we can expect temperatures and precipitation to be above average.

State Climatologist Pete Boulay says this year's prediction is anything but shocking.

"We've had a lot of wimpy winters in the last few years. In the last ten winters, except for one, we've had a problem keeping the snow around," Boulay said, looking at Minnesota winter stats.

Boulay and NOAA forecasters say there will be cold and there will be snow. What they can't say with certainty is whether the cold and snow will stick around. If history repeats itself, it will be another tough season at Bob's Cycle and Snowmobile Supply.

"I was like 'great, another crappy winter.' If it doesn't snow by mid-January, they (snowmobilers) start going out west," Monte Rohrbach of Bob's said.

Employees rolled out the winter merchandise one month ago, whether customers will help move it out the front door is up to Mother Nature.

"Every year it keeps getting worse and worse. When I was growing up, I remember snow banks this high on Halloween," Rohrbach said.

Talking to folks who focus on the winter, we learned who prays for snow and who doesn't mind a mild winter. Snowmobilers, ski hill operators and snowplow drivers obviously would like to see an early and prolonged snowy season.

Who wins if it's not? You may save a few greenbacks on home heating bills. MnDOT may also benefit. A mild winter means more time for a long list of road construction projects and less money spent on snowplows.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will update its winter season forecasts two more times before November 15. Michael Halpert, head of forecast operations, says the Midwest predictions are based more on recent trends, and less on La Nina effects.

http://www.kare11.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=266899