Hurricane Dean

It's taken quite a while to get started this year - for which we are very grateful!! - but Pati just gave her first "Hang on Sloopy" warning, so the season has now officially begun.

Here is a link to the National Hurricane Center's page: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Dean is expected to be an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane by the time it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula and then heads into the Gulf of Mexico. Please start praying now for the people in Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, and the Yucatan as this storm passes through there. It's too soon yet to say exactly where it will make landfall in the USA, but right now it's pointing straight at Texas. Joy.

Wasn't there one with a similar path in recent years? Ended up in Mexico, I think.....

I am concerned about Texas. If you look at the different computer models on Wunderground.com the GFDL model and the UKMET model show a more northerly track.

Here is an historical (1851 - 2006) map showing where hurricanes have made landfall when they passed within 300 miles of Dean's position.

Here's the link: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_climo.html#a_topad

ETA - This map shows only August hurricanes not all season

This message was edited Aug 17, 2007 7:51 AM

Looks like the majority have just barrelled into Mexico. I think the key will be the interaction between that Low in the Gulf and the hurricane.

This has really become a monster storm. Jamaica is wearing the bullseye at the moment. Dean has slowed to 17mph and is moving W to WNW with sustained winds of 150 mph. Hurricane force winds extend outward 60 miles...95 KM...and TS force winds extend outward up to 205 miles, 335KM.

Dean is expected to reach Cat 5 in the next 24 hours and remain so until it gets to the Yucatan

The Caribbean Island Hurricane Watchers web is comparing Dean to Gilbert in 1988. The damage was great and the track seems to be the same. Dean is a wide one:

"HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES..."

Soooo, even if it stays south, Texas will get the "dirty" side of it. More rain ya'll DON'T need! Head for high ground and
Hang on Sloopy!
Pati

I feel for Haiti and Jamaica right now, just looks awful for them :(

Dea

WE have DG members on the Caymans too. They have a thread going in the Tropical GArdening Forum

I've been havin a problem pulling up the stormCARIB web site today. Is it working for yu Pati?

Blooms, is this the one you have? Working fine for me.
http://stormcarib.com/

Thanks for the info in the cayman Island DG'ers. I didn't realize there were any there.
Pati

Yes, DG'rs in the Caymans...I headed over here to tell folks and ya'll already know.

If anyone id close with any of them, have them touch base with someone after Dean has passed. We need to know if they're allright...and if they need anything.

IslandShari seems to hear from John and Kate before the rest of us. We are all on our knees and praying for them and all the others that are in harms way. Over the past months I personally have begun to feel as if they are really and truly my family. DG is a magic place for bringing us together for such a miriad of things. God bless each of you.

Shari will most likely be the one to keep us informed about John and Katie. I will d-mail her to make sure though.


I am currently reading that Dean is expected to be a Cat 5 possibly in the next 24 hrs. I need to check a few other sites to be sure though.

920 MB at the 8PM Advisory:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/182359.shtml

David, the link didn't work.

I have just found this - thank you Pep! I have John's Mom's number and his sisters info in the states....will be in touch with them soon. I am most concerned with getting them what ever they may need after Dean passes. They are seasoned islanders, and well prepared, but John's arm is in a cast, so that is a little worrisome. I will keep everyone posted as soon as I know anything. On the maps of this monster, the Caymans look so very tiny....prayers and thoughts to all in Jamaica and the rest of the path...

pepper...sorry, maybe the link to NOAA's main page will stay up:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhc_storms.shtml

Click on Public Advisory #23A

Projected paths are slightly further to the south at 8PM. Good for Texas, bad for Mexico

Has anyone else ever noticed that it seems that the worst natural disastors seem to happen in areas of the world where the people are least able to access shelter from the storm or have the resources to recover.........

Yes, I have noticed...but its not just natural disasters that happen to those least able to protect themselves....man does his share as well. So sad. I misspoke a moment ago....its John's brothers info I have. Have a call in to his Mom, but her cell is off so left a message with the service. All the phones to the island are ringing busy - so they are probably out of service already.

This morning I'm hearing Jamaica & then Cancun. Sorry to hear it, and hope all fare well.

Here's the Caribbean Hurricane Net. Jamaica power is turning off at 10 AM, but CNN has a man in Kingston and WC has one in Montego Bay.

Prayers for all in the path and "cool running" for Jamaica.
Hang on Sloopys in the Carib.
Pati
http://stormcarib.com/

Shari, when Dean goes thru and he is able to contact us again, a bunch of us can pitch in and send him things he needs. That will ease the burden a bit.

I am hearing now from TWC that Dean will hit Cancun and Mexico.

Yep, it's sure looking like it. Here's the 5 day map...

Morning Pep! Yes, if needed we are organizing a post Dean house party over on the Tropical Gardening forum....hopefully it won't be needed. MeanDean veered a wee bit south overnight, so we are keeping our fingers crossed (and toes, and eyes and braids ...) .I adore Mexico, and don't wish this monster on anyone (!), but there are more sparsly populated areas in that part than in the Gulf. Keep up the positive thoughts everyone! maybe we can just blow this guy out to sea!

concentrating very hard.......

Bless your heart Chris - I knew you were! I just talked to John, he sounds real good - not scared - but ready. He respects this storm, so he's not taking any chances. He said that as soon as communications are back up - after - he will call so I can make a post on his behalf to his wonderful DG family. He is very touched by all the concern and love he feels from everyone on here. I am going to post this in "tis the season" as well. You guys are the greatest!

Thought I would let anyone interested know that it looks like John and Katie are okay....lots of wind and rain coming now, but no serious damage, and no one is hurt! Yeah!!!!! Hope the folks in Mexico fare as well! Thanks for all the good thoughts!

Sure wish he could post soon. There is a reason or he would have already.....waiting.

Dean has been upgraded to Cat 5 at 190 mph winds. Wow!!

Hope everyone makes it out ok.

Ok, am now hearing 160 not 190. Makes more sense.

This message was edited Aug 20, 2007 7:51 PM

When I was in Honduras, I saw devastation still left from the 1998 Hurricane Mitch where whole towns came off the mountains and many, many people were killed. That storm killed over 9000 people. Little did I know when we were there Oct. 16 - 27th that that was almost to the day when Mitch hit them. Oct. 22 - Nov 9, 1998. Most people still talk about it and many things were not repaired. They said the flooding was unbelievable.

There used to be a whole town on this mountainside that slid down into the city of Tegucigalpa from the flood waters.

I am constantly reminded of how incredibly lucky I am. Thank you for the reminder once again.