Mild Winter we're having.......

Well, I hope this does not jinx the weather pattern of the past month, nor that predicted for the next 3. I don't know about you folks, but here in the Great Lakes region, notably SE Michigan where I live, we are having a GREAT winter so far. Things looked bleak when we had a freak early snow on October 8 (barely 20 days after the official end of summer). I drove over to Kalamazoo MI that day, in the lake effect snow belt from Lake Michigan, and there were 3 inches of snow on the ground. The only time I can ever recall having snow before the end of October (and even that would be early). As the 'official Scrooge of winter' living in winter country, I thought the worst.

But that has been it. Oh maybe a dusting here and there. And a few clear cold spells when the lows went down to about 20.

But now? Green grass. Highs consistently in the low 40s, over 60 one day. Many nights above freezing. A Hamamelis 'Jelena' that I planted this fall has most all its flower buds open. Buds swelling on H. mollis. Several hellebores in bloom or bud. The soil is mostly unfrozen and workable. Broadleaf evergreens and marginal conifers (mostly cedrus) I have planted the last 2 years look positively chipper. The local 10 day forecast shows more of the same, and the NOAA climate prediction site which gives 30 and 90 day forecasts shows temps consistently above normal across the northern tier, through March, with the greatest departure from normal in the upper plains and western Great Lakes. All right! People in those areas suffer from hot sunmmers and cold winters, so why shouldn't they be rewarded by a good El Nino? We haven't had one for awhile.

After having been spoiled by quite a few winters in a row like this in the late nineties, we have had fairly normal winters temp wise the past 3, though actually I think last winter wasn't too bad. But the 2 before that went to -15 each year here, which is pretty cold (though "normal" cold). Yes, of course, I know that these reflect global warming. With all its negative and dire consequences for the world. My biologist-trained cerebral self knows that this is all bad.

But, desiring to get some marginals better established here so they might better be able to survive a "normal" cold winter in the future, I am thrilled at the prospect of a mild winter.

Why heck, the dead ornamental grasses even look pretty at the local McDonalds :o)

So how is your winter turning out?

This message was edited Dec 28, 2006 2:51 PM

It's been somewhat normal here, and also not so normal. We had that October snow, plus temps down to below zero and 14" of snow in December, yet it has warmed up and we have had buckets of rain this month as well. To see a 10 day forecast this time of year with highs in the 40's is unheard of. Typical for us is the months of January and February having highs that never breach the 32F mark. The 60 days of solid freezing temps are what batter all those evergreen wannabe's. So January looks to be starting on a particularly mild note. For us, I note January 19th as "winter hump day"(.....edited out inappropriate comment goes here....). That's the average coldest day of the year(29/10 on average for high/low). It's all up from there, although looking at the daily averages at weather.com is depressing in the relative slooooow rise in average temps from that point on.

I am not an anti-winter person at all, so extreme cold or not, I like it all. I enjoy being out in the cold, but, oddly, not that big a fan of "winter interest" in the garden. It's dark at 4:30 here, with the sun heading down while I am still in my office. I like the standstill that comes with extreme cold, the brutal cleansing of marginal pests, and the awesome burst of activity that follows in the spring. That's what Zone 5 is all about, and I like it!

Nice way to sum up zone 5.

Very mild here. October was cold. Way below normal. But November and December were ridiculous, often above 60F and once or twice into the 70s. Our coldest one night was about 10F, and that was late October. That was the one morning the ground felt frozen, and only one of three that I had to scrape my windshield in the morning. No witchhazel flowers yet. I had sown seeds in baggies of sand and left them in the garage (as I always do), but since it has been so warm a few things have gone ahead and germinated. Didn't quite know how to deal with this, but, as usual, I improvised. We'll see if what I did works or not soon enough.

Scott

Thought you might be interested in this link. I stand firmly on the side of global warming when it comes to debating what the statistics actually mean. kt

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/cag3.html

I worry that if we do get some real cold that it might be too much for the half-asleep plants whose buds already seem to swollen for late December!

I've got buds on my rosebushes that are approaching an inch long and my Montauk Daisy already has growth I would expect in March.

Interestingly enough, a variegated holly that I should have no business expecting to survive here shows more damage this winter than any of the previous colder winters. I expect I might lose it whether or not we actually get seasonable cold. (I'm a little tired of coddling it anyway).

~Chills

Mild winters aren't always the panacea for marginal plants, and definitely are not the answer for precocious spring bloomers.

Scott

Our winter (such as it is) has been milder than normal thus far. Oddly tho, we had a very early hard freeze in Nov. which is definitely not normal. Green shoots popping everywhere they shouldn't at this point.
Snow drops actually blooming. I know we'll have more cold weather in Jan. Just hoping all these budding things won't get burnt.
Deb

You have all learned what I have, maybe with different groups of plants, but with the same lessons. I love winter bloomers, hellebores are the prime examples. And these winters, warm like this one, are such teasers because one could believe that one was living in Seattle or Dublin. The hellebores start to come up and open, maybe in December like this year, in other years in January or February. But then, of course, the vagaries of a midwestern continental climate declare themselves with a vengeance, and we DO have a cold snap where temps may drop to 5 degrees -- even if it is only for a few days. And even with winter bloomers which have to contend with below freezing temperatures in most of their effective garden ranges, 5 degree temps still really damage flowers If a hellebore is up and really blooming, the flowers will be ruined by temps in those ranges.

So yes, it is really much better for the plants (or for their garden display) if the temps really do stay consistently cold till March or even into the beginning of April. Those years, I have had by far the best displays from my hellebores, witchhazels, etc. Even though we may have to wait longer for them to start.

That said, my dang saucer magnolias are in bud again. They just have no idea what time of year it is! And we noticed a brood of cardinal girl babies in our maple tree. Our little cat was yipping at them, or Momma and daughters would've been well-hidden. Is that normal for them to keep breeding all winter long?

Another mild winter here with temperatures even higher than last winter. Snowdrops have been flowering for the past month and there is no snow and little if any frost in the ground.

Winter temperatures here in Vermont have increased by 2.2 degrees F over the past 100 years. With the shorter and warmer winters sap is running weeks earlier than normal so that sugar makers are harvesting as early as January. Vermont historically produced 80% of the nation's maple syrup but today Quebec produces 75%. Winter has been shortened by 2 weeks since the 60s and our ski resorts are have later and later opening dates. I have read that our coniferous and mixed deciduous/coniferous forest are going to gradually change to a forest that is more similar to the forest type that is more like that of Pennsylvania and northern Virginia. Some say that with a changing climate we may actually loose our much loved Sugar Maples.

It's been ridiculously mild here so far this winter, nothing below about -2°C, and no snow settling at all yet. Today was +9°, tomorrow is forecast to reach 12°.

Resin

I agree with David_V, we may be in for some hard times ahead. Sadly, there is lots of talk about the issue but no action. I'll leave it at that so I don't get "political".

Just noticed buds on some of my hellebore today as well. And...

http://wcbstv.com/topstories/local_story_002184822.html

I've got Hellebores. I completely forget that I have them. I need to run out tomorrow and see what's going on with mine.

Did you know that Christmas rose (Helleborus niger) is poisonous? I don't know if that's what you have or not, I just was thinking about your critters. I just found this out yesterday. Of course, if they don't eat it, they'll be fine.

I have three daffs. in bloom...H. foetidus and cameillia. 60 degrees here yesterday

I have daff foliage poking through, but no blooms. I really don't want them now. What would there be to look forward to in March & April?

I am going to have to cut my Lawn in the lower part of my back yard tomorrow morning. It is LOOOOOOONNNNNGGGG!!!!!
How's that for wierd winter phenomenon...

David, you have D-mail...

Our local weather guru, Tom Skilling, just mentioned tonight that the El Nino may leave early this year, like in the next 30 days, which could lead to a much different winter for the second half. We may just get a real winter after all.

Wouldn't that be nice

This message was edited Jan 6, 2007 6:50 PM

We are having such a mild winter here in northwest Missouri. Today it has been very mild and thats unusual for us this time of year. No ice on the ponds, no frozen ground, no snow, etc. thus far. No winter happening here thus far.
Cuckoo

A friend from GW diggingthedirt provided me with a simplistic explanation for the climatic changes we are all talking about and I thought I would share with you. kt

“The Atlantic "conveyor belt" brings warm surface water up from the tropics while cold water from the arctic slips southward closer to the sea floor; it relies on the fact that water from the slowly melting glaciers is cold and somewhat fresh, and therefore sinks in the salty ocean, passing by the warmer surface currents that generally tend northward. Some of the arctic water rises as it reaches the equatorial area, is warmed, and flows back to the north.

The surface water temps in the eastern North Atlantic have been increasing steadily for many years; in the short term this has already directly effected our climate and the zone maps for coastal regions. What is disturbing is that deep parts of the ocean are also warming. We have less data on deep water, but enough to see the trend.

At some point, if the conveyor belt is disrupted (because of too much fresh water entering the system from rapidly melting glaciers, or from a change in the temperature difference between the equator and the polar regions), we may have an abrupt change. Exactly what that will be is unknown, but there are many modellers working on possible scenarios. In the meanwhile, we are already experiencing climate change, but at this stage we have seen only moderate, fairly benign changes.

I left out the all-important el nino, which meteorologists unanimously agree is directly responsible for this winter's extremely warm temperatures. El ninos form in the tropical Pacific, and bring warm air across the American continents. They keep the arctic air up towards Canada - so, no "Canadian clippers" so far to bring winter cold to the northeast. El ninos are thought to be more prevalent and stronger because of global warming. In that sense, maybe we are already experiencing climate change, with more and stronger el ninos - or, maybe not! “

Here in Colorado, we are having the opposite. It is colder than normal(usually see these temps in Jan & Feb), wetter than normal (not really a complaint there), which all means a lot more snow. Fortunately, this could/should mean an end to our drought. How will the lack of snow impact your (north central/north east) water tables? Or, are you still getting plenty of rain? Copper mountain ski resort already has 128" of snow, which they usually don't see until Feb/March (our wettest months). I know that a majority of our mountain resevoirs that we get our water from are full(which they haven't been for more than a decade). If our snow maintains through winter, we will be looking at major floods along the front range (Colo Springs, Denver, Ft Collins) this spring, possibly including 100 yr flood plains that have recently been heavily built upon. I hope it isn't that severe, but?!

We here in Montana are having a normal winter with lows already in November to -16F. Our snow fall has been the only thing that is less because CO is stealing all of it. We still have lots in the mountains but not enough for a powder day skiing every week. I have enjoyed the lack (so far) of the 2 days of -25F that limit us to zone 4 but maybe we will escape this year. I hope so cause I have planted some young zone 5 trees. They need to get established before the Artic mass decends.

This message was edited Jan 7, 2007 12:38 PM

And you should have heard the Vikings complaining the whole while.

We'd all have Nordic accents (not just MNians) if not for some timely glacial cycling.

We are certainly making up for our drought last summer. My yard is so soggy right now I nearly need boots to walk out there, and more rain is on the way. At least it's supposed to get cooler this week, these warm temps and high humidity feel too much like summer right now.

Sorry Sofer, but we really needed the water. Supposed to be high of 15* come Friday!

We all have nordic genes they never stayed long enough to teach us nordic tongue. Well except in MN where they got trapped for a while when the glaciers extended into Wisconsin and trapped them in the Twin cities where they carved on a stone to pass the time away. Hey maybe that is where "Ya sure you betcha" came from. The Vikings to this day say "Yhug Uchur U Beshua" Which means in Nordic:" I'm not the one who Fathered those children."
I am only jealous vdap enjoy the split in the jet stream.

This message was edited Jan 7, 2007 12:15 PM

Sorry Resin I didn't realize the politics of that statement. It has been deleted. Soferdig (who is certainly being German of Nordic genetics)

Vell, ve don't tawlk any different dan youse guys do. I yust don't get vhy youse tink ve have an accent?
Mike

Davs Træelsker Mike,

Jeg forstår det slet ikke. Hvad mener du?

Mike:

Ah ain't got no ideal what y'all just said. Ah reckon y'all got into sum likker.


Resin:

It looks like about 7 more days until regular old winter returns, with highs of 20F and lows in the single digitsF. That's not bad though. It's the next 25 degrees below those single digits that are chilly.

We have had it unusually warm. The meteorologist said that this past december was the warmest that it's been in the past one hundred years! We should have had over 11" of snow already and we've only had 1". There has been some very heavy rainstorms though and not being a fan of snow I was glad the 3 1/2" we had the other day wasn't snow!!
However, my plants don't know what's going on. My roses are budding, the petunias in my side garden next to the house are sprouting new leaves, and my grass needs to be mowed. I'm hoping that we do get a good cold snap, I'm concerned about the insects that are going to survive this mild winter!

In this stretch of zone 5 true winter is supposed to return in about a week. Aside from the warm weather the major impact has been rain. Unbelievable rain with floods. The local soil here is sandy, remant sand dunes in oak savannah habitat. You can stand on the ground in one spot and the water begins to puddle in the depressions from your shoes - total saturation. No one here can recall this kind of saturation in this soil type. Normally you could dig a hole, put a hose in it and and the water would dissapear almost as fast as it went in. Last fall for the first time ever I put a lime/sulphur with dormant oil on the tree peonies trying to get ahead of phytophthora blight. Little did I know. While the politics of global warming are not for this forum, coping strategies for weird weather are.

We are having a beautiful typical winter. It has been in single digits in day and minus digits in the night. My diesel car took 15 minutes to start and my heated seats were cold until I got about a 1/2 mile from my work. So you east coasters and east midders should be thankful. Winter still exists but I do agree that the Jet Stream has gotton awfully crooked this last few winters.