Here we go folks....just named and it looks like it MAY be a Gulf storm.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO WITH A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND THE WESTERN END OF CUBA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
GFDL WHICH CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A TRACK OVER THE LENGTH OF CUBA
Hang on Sloopys!
Pati
Tropical Storm Ernesto
Awww, Pati.. Now I'm going to be singing the tuba line to "Hang On Sloopy" all day...
LOL, maybe this will be the only time we have to sing it this year!
Pati
We are getting READY if this come this way to LA again like RITA!!!! E better go away! We the LA is not ready for another one..
Thanks Pati. I shall stay tuned!
I will reiterate what I said so many times last year and before... Gulf storms mean big flooding in the Appalachians as a rule. And, I now live in a flood plain.
Last year we got rains from some of the tail ends too.
We received a lot of rain from the hurricanes here in Pa. In fact that was our major source of water.
I know you're keeping watch on this one pati - looks like it's developing....
Dea
The models are showing a Cat 1 hurricane on Monday morning as it passes south of Cuba. The only change in direction is slightly to the north which makes it go over the tip of western Cuba into the Gulf instead of through the open channel between Cuba and the Yucatan.
Nobody is trying to predict ANYTHING when it gets into the Gulf....all bets are off. I guess we should be checking into where Jim Cantori has hotel reservations!! LOL
Pati
giggle ~~~ Blooms
Pati, after reading the NOAA discussions just now, I wouldn't place any bets either.
Pati, I lost my hurricane sites when my putor crashed and I can't find it.
can you give me the NOAA link?
Blooms, I can. Here's the main NOAA link
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Well, Ernesto seems to be taking a turn that aims at LA and AL gulf coasts. Pooh.
I know I saw it.. many people around here.. still living in fema trailer and lots of house still have blue roof... like in NO.
We still have some blue roofs around here too. Sigh. Will have to watch this one closely since it looks like it might head this direction. I am thinking between Mobile and Pensacola, but who knows.
That's right at me! Lord I hope we don't get another one.
Oh hate to think about the hurricane but need to know to watch close before we know it to leave fast not to wait the last minute so, I got prepare to be ready done before "if" hit here hope not that I am hopefully the hurricane go back to the gulf have enough bad off last year never forget how sad and terrible.
NOAA CONTINUES TO PREDICT ABOVE-NORMAL HURRICANE SEASON
August 8, 2006 — With the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season upon us, experts from NOAA are reiterating their prediction for an above-normal number of storms. NOAA scientists warn this year's relatively quiet start is not an indication of what the remainder of the season has in store. (Click NOAA image for larger view of updated 2006 Atlantic hurricane season outlook. Please credit “NOAA.”)
"This year's three named storms may pale in comparison to the record nine storms that formed through early August 2005, but conditions will be favorable for above-normal activity for the rest of this season—so we are not off the hook by any means," said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.
Here's NOAA's 5 day cone but we all know that's just for this morning and subject to almost immediate change LOL
ETS They are calling Ernesto a hurricane on NOAA - 79mph sustained
This message was edited Aug 27, 2006 7:28 AM
Quoting:
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. NOW FOR THE REST OF THE BAD NEWS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS..AND NOW TAKES ERNESTO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIG EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
CAUSING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO GRADUALLY ERODE EASTWARD.
THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS APPEAR TO BE ERODING THE RIDGE TO QUICKLY AND HAVE ERNESTO OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA IN 84 HOURS. THE REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THE CYCLONE FARTHER WESTWARD OVER OR WEST OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.
HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS
NOW AGREE ON RECURVATURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AROUND 96 HOURS...AND TAKE ERNESTO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY 120 HOURS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/270900.shtml?
Sure did take a hard right turn.
Dea
Thanks Darius and Floridian.....I was having a bad night and finally went to sleep just before the 5AM came out. For all the good I am, you'd think I worked for FEMA! LOL Sorry, that wasn't meant to be a sick joke.
Anyway.......here's the new meeting place.
Pati
http://davesgarden.com/forums/t/644369/