Hurricane IDA

IDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER BACK OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING AFTER THAT TIME. UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER IDA EMERGES OVER WATER. THERE REMAINS A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST...SINCE IDA MAY NOT SURVIVE ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/05. IDA IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOUR OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK MODELS MOVE IDA IN A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST DIRECTION INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF...AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.

THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LIKELY BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES CAUSED BY EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.

IDA WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME RESTRENGTHENING
OVERNIGHT AFTER IT EMERGES FROM EASTERN HONDURAS. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE A LARGE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH
INTENSIFICATION TO EXPECT WITH IDA. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SHOWS A RATHER MODEST AMOUNT OF RESTRENGTHENING...WHILE
THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS SUGGEST THAT IDA WILL BECOME A
HURRICANE AGAIN.

...............

IDA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH...360/6. A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO STEER THE STORM NORTHWARD
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER... IDA SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BUILDS. IN THE LONG-RANGE...A TROUGH
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD FORCE IDA TO TURN TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE INTERACTION OF IDA WITH THAT TROUGH IS
CAUSING A WIDE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS... RANGING FROM A FASTER
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LANDFALL TO IDA REMAINING SEPARATE FROM THE
TROUGH AND STAYING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. ALTHOUGH SOME OF
THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD SINCE THE LAST RUN...CLIMATOLOGY
AND THE FORECAST STRONG UPPER- LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUGGEST
THE EASTERN SOLUTIONS ARE LIKELY CLOSER TO REALITY. THE NHC
FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THERE IS STILL A THREAT OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES CAUSED BY EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS
TODAY.

IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND IDA IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON MONDAY.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.

RAINS WILL BE INCREASING WELL IN ADVANCE OF IDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF COAST...BUT WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER BY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD
INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM
GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. THIS WATCH DOES NOT
INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN AND FROM
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR MONDAY.

WITH IDA MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF COOLER WATERS AND
INCREASING SHEAR...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE GLOBAL
MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF BAROCLINIC RE-INTENSIFICATION
PRIOR TO LANDFALL...SO THE HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE BEING
DISCONTINUED...LEAVING ONLY TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN PLACE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL ABOVE THE ICON CONSENSUS.

RAINS FROM IDA WILL BE REACHING THE COAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES.

A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.