Pacific Hurricane Rick

ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND INGESTION OF DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE HURRICANE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER IN WEAKENING RICK THAN WAS SHOWN IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...BUT THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALREADY LOWER THAN EXPECTED. MOST IMPORTANTLY...RICK IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. A 96-HOUR POSITION IS SHOWN TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER WILL EXIST AT THAT TIME.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA EARLY MONDAY. INTERESTS THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN BAJA AND ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICK.

800 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2009

...RICK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...AIRCRAFT
RECONNAISSANCE TO INVESTIGATE LATER TODAY...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST AND FROM SAN EVARISTO
SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS HURRICANE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.